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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it creates an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

However this year's race is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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