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Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles emit nearly 5x greater global warming pollution than official figures indicate, according to a recent analysis.

Growing Discrepancy Between Official and Actual Emissions

Data shows that PHEVs release only 19% less CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, according to research carried out by a advocacy group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in emissions.

Researchers studied information from onboard energy use meters of eight hundred thousand cars sold in the EU from 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times higher than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are increasing, while official emissions are falling,” stated a senior analyst involved in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and creates a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs pollute almost as much as gasoline cars.”

Primary Factors Behind the Discrepancy

Analysts linked the majority of the difference to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the ratio of kilometers driven in electric power relative to total mileage. They found that only a quarter of travel was completed in EV mode, while official estimates suggested 84%.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, pollution amounts were well above lab estimates. That occurred because EV motors were not strong sufficient to function alone, resulting to engines using gasoline for nearly a third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Financial Implications

Based on calculations, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed several large automaker companies to escape more than €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by falsely simplifying adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs would pay about €500 more annually in operating costs than is estimated under lab tests.

“The strong statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV cars are obviously far from the truth,” commented a automotive analyst. “Buyers are being misled into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. In reality, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ production, and operating expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Automotive Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have recently been drawn again into policy debates as carmakers have pressed the European Union to relax CO₂ targets. A planned prohibition on new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the car sector and opposition from EU countries with large car manufacturing.

Several senior officials have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the legislation.

An independent energy economics specialist, who was not involved with the study, described the analysis a “highly valuable addition” after years in which parts of the automotive industry argued there was insufficient information to accurately assess real-world emissions.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the difference between official and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is much, much larger than for gasoline or conventional cars,” the expert stated. “All policy adjustments concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost care and considering that evidence.”